I know nothing

Two times a year, baseball fans prognosticate. Once at the start of the season and once at the start of the postseason.

It's a fun activity. People seem to like it. I think some take it far too seriously, but if done in the spirit in which it is intended, as folks shooting the shit during a barroom conversation, it's good, clean, mindless entertainment.

I've participated in the Prognosticating Games many times. And it's taken those many times for me to realize: I suck at it.

I can't predict. I've lost my crystal ball. In fact I don't think I ever had one. My inner soothsayer is on permanent vacation.

For years, even though I knew this, I'd still pretend that I could predict the outcome of games. I'd participate in weekly NFL pools. Didn't win squat. Because of my job, people would ask me to predict the score of the local college football game. That's a funny thing to ask someone who finds the squirrels scurrying around the backyard more interesting than college football. But I'd humor them and give them a score.

I'd be only slightly more successful with baseball. Most of the time I was wrong. And I've been wrong a number of times on this blog. I predicted the Rays would win the World Series last year. They didn't. (Don't get excited, my prediction wasn't in April, it was in October). I'm wrong about players. I was uncertain about the Dodgers signing Orlando Hudson. It turns out he was an all-star. I didn't want the Dodgers to acquire Vicente Padilla. He's 4-0.

I didn't want the Dodgers to sign Randy Wolf. I think I called him a borderline fifth starter. I'm not going to point you to the specific blog post. But it's there.

Now, tonight, Randy Wolf is starting Game 1 of the NLDS against the Cardinals. He is, basically, the Dodgers' ace. I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing. But I do know that I didn't see it coming.

So, even though it's the thing to do, I'm not predicting the outcome of the Dodgers' series against the Cardinals. I'm done with that. My gut tells me the Cardinals will win. Better pitching. Better role players. But the only reason I just wrote that is to jinx the Cardinals. Because I know nothing. And I'm usually wrong.

Despite my gut feeling, I made a wager with Cards on Cards. If the Cardinals win, I'll send madding an autographed card of this guy:

Or this guy ...

I don't have an autographed card of either of those guys. Heck, I'm lucky I have a single card of Adam Wainwright. So, that means if the Cardinals win, I'll have to go shopping. And I hate shopping.

Somewhere in my brain, I made the wager because of this bit of logic: my gut tells me the Cardinals are going to win, but because I'm so lousy at predicting, the Dodgers will end up winning. And then I'll win the wager! Of course, you could argue that bit of reasoning means I actually think the Dodgers are going to win, and because of my lousy predicting abilities, the Cardinals will win and then I'll lose the wager.

Did you follow that? Isn't that messed up? See, that's why I'm not predicting a thing. I'm not equipped to handle it. I'm just going to watch the game. That's all I'm doing. With my hand on the mute button.

Because I may know nothing, but the announcers know even less.